The Super Bowl and Its Role as an Indicator in the Stock Market

PointPay
4 min readFeb 7, 2024

Sports are an integral part of cultures worldwide, with each country having its unique favorites. American football, widely popular in the United States and Canada, stands out as one such sport.

Originating in the 19th century, American football evolved from a twist on the conventional football game, capturing the hearts of many. Today, it has become a cultural phenomenon in America and Canada, with thousands of teams competing at amateur and professional levels, vying for honor, glory, and a good time.

As fans gather to watch the best teams in action, either in stadiums or through online streaming and TV broadcasts, the spectacle of American football unfolds. The goal is simple: get the ball to the end zone or kick it through the goalposts. However, the game becomes much more complex when facing an opposing team of 11 players, with physical confrontations allowed. The pushing, grabbing, breaking free, and sprinting towards the goal make American football a thrilling experience.

The Pinnacle Event of American Football

In any popular sport, tournaments and competitions emerge, highlighting the best of the best. The Super Bowl, the paramount event in American football, occurs annually, bringing together the top teams in a grand showdown.

The Super Bowl marks the culmination of the yearly National Football League (NFL) season, captivating millions of viewers across the United States/Canada. The event enjoys broad public attention and is a significant spectacle.

The rules of American football dictate that teams play four quarters of 15 minutes each, with substantial breaks between quarters and shorter timeouts in the middle of each quarter. The ample free time allows organizers to stage performances with world-class artists, and companies seize the opportunity for impactful advertising.

The widespread popularity of American football in the US and Canada, coupled with fervent public affection for the sport, makes the Super Bowl a globally resonant event.

The Super Bowl Indicator

The Super Bowl is intertwined with numerous stories, events, and memorable moments for hundreds of thousands in North America. In 1978, a journalist noticed an intriguing coincidence — a correlation between the winning team in the Super Bowl and the trend in the stock market. Allegedly, if a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) triumphs, a positive market trend is anticipated for the following year. Conversely, a victory by a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) signals a negative market trend.

Since the discovery of this inexplicable phenomenon, many investors and analysts have turned their attention to the Super Bowl outcome, using it as an unconventional indicator. While Super Bowl results cannot be logically linked to stock market trends, this coincidence persisted, with an impressive 70% accuracy overall, 100% from 1967 to 1989, and only one error from 1967 to 1997.

However, relying on this indicator may not be wise. From 2016 to 2023, the Super Bowl Indicator showed no accuracy, with a 0% success rate in predicting market trends over the past eight years.

Source: Super Bowl Indicator Results, impersonalfinances.com

Just a Lighthearted Diversion

Ultimately, the Super Bowl Indicator is merely a whimsical coincidence. Born out of happenstance, it has established itself as a historical oddity. Today, many investors and analysts use this indicator as a way to take a break from serious work and enjoy a bit of entertainment.

Moreover, observing the Super Bowl Indicator allows you to be part of a significant event that annually brings sincere emotions and a chance to have some fun.

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